US March core PCE +1.8% y/y vs +1.8% expected

Highlights from the personal consumption expenditure report for March 2021:

  • Prior was +1.4% y/y
  •  PCE core MoM +0.4% vs +0.3% expected
  •  Prior MoM +0.1%
  •  Deflator YoY +2.3% vs +2.3% expected
  •  Prior deflator YoY +0.5%
  •  Deflator MoM +0.5% vs +0.5% expected
  •  Prior MoM deflator +0.2%

Consumers spending and income for March:

  • Personal income +21.1% vs +20.3% expected. Prior month -7.1%
  • Personal spending +4.2% vs +4.1% expected. Prior month -1.0%
  • Real personal spending +3.6% vs +3.7% expected. Prior month -1.2%

It took until February revisions until the January stimulus checks were fully incorporated into the January data. I expect a similar kind of upward revision for March when we get next month’s report.

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