There is a small chance of AUD volatility (to the downside) on today’s RBA decision – here’s why

The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy announcement and Governor Lowe’s accompanying statement are due Tuesday 06 April 2021 at 0430 GMT.

There is a small (very small but not zero) chance the RBA announces it is switching its 3-year bond target to the November 2024 Australian government bond (from currently targeting the April 2024 bond).

  • The yield target for April 2024 is 0.1%

Nov 2024 is currently trading with a yield of around 0.3% and thus if this became the target (at 0.1%) the yield should drop sharply, which would weigh on AUD

To be clear (again) this is a very small chance, market consensus is April 2024 will remain the targeted bond for now, with a switch to November 2024 likely in August. 

Earlier:

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