IMF boosts 2021 global growth estimate to 6.0% from 5.5% in January

IMF more upbeat on global growth

IMF more upbeat on global growth
  • 2021 would be strongest year since 1976
  • Advanced economies +5.1% vs +4.3% in Jan
  • Emerging markets 6.7% vs 6.3% in January
  • The IMF sees 4.4% growth in 2022
  • Says global economy contracted 3.3% in 2020 vs 3.5% prior estimate
  • US GDP seen at 6.4% from 5.1% in Jan estimate on stronger stimulus
  • Says that growth depends on vaccine rollout
  • Sees multi-speed recovery reflecting vaccine rollout differences, extent of fiscal support and structural factors

Country numbers compared to January estimates:

  • US 6.4% vs 5.1%
  • Germany 3.6% vs 3.5%
  • France 5.8% vs 5.5%
  • Japan 3.3% vs 3.1%
  • UK 5.3% vs 4.5%
  • Canada 5.0% vs 3.6%
  • China 8.4% vs 8.1%
  • India 12.5% vs 11.5%

The biggest delta in all of those is Canada, which helps to explain why CAD has been the best-performing G10 currency so far this year.

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