Extends above 50% retracement
The EURUSD is trading to a new session high and in the process has traded to the highest level since March 24 (10 days ago). The move to the upside has extended above the 38.2% of the trend move down from the March 18 high that saw the pair move from 1.19883 to 1.17035 over 9+ or so trading days. The pair fell 7 of 9 days on the way down.
Since bottoming, the price has now been up 3 of 4 days (today would be the 4th day higher). The range has now been extended to 39 pips on the break higher. It had been a very narrow 27 pips prior to the move higher. Chop. Chop. The 22 day average is 67 pips (around a month of trading). So there is room to roam.
The next major target comes at the 50% midpoint of the move down from the March 18 high. That level comes in at 1.18459. There may be some interim resistance at 1.1835 to 1.18385. Those were swing low and swing high on March 24 before moving lower.
On the break, traders would want to see the momentum continue in the direction of the break. If the pair starts to trade back below the old high or the broken 38.2% (after chopping around it all day), that would be a disappointment for the buyers.. The buyers are making a play on the break. It is up to them to keep the momentum going at push toward that 50% midpoint.