Buyers trying to push higher
The move to the downside, took the price back below the 100 day MA (at 0.76347 and the 100 and 200 hour MAs which are now converged at 0.7614. Yesterday, the price fell back below those MAs as well only to lose selling momentum – not gain momentum as you would expect. Today, the price action was the same. The low for the day reached 0.76052 but could not sustain downside momentum. When after two hourly bars, the price started to base at the MAs, the sellers gave up, and the buyers pushed the price higher.
The pair has just moved to a new NY session high and in the process has moved back above the 100 day MA (the price has been waffling above and below that MA going back to March 24th now).
Buyers are trying to push higher once again and get out of what has been a narrow range. MOST of the trading since March 23 has been in a 100 or so pip trading range. There was one extension lower on April 1 that took the price below the March 25 low at 0.75625, but that started to fail after 4 hours. Most of the price action over the last 10 days has been between 0.75625 and 0.76632.
Most of the price action over the last 2 days has been above the 100/200 hour MAs. Can the buyers get out of the rut now and push higher? Get above 0.76527, then the high from March 30 at 0.76632 would have traders looking toward the 50% midpoint at 0.76901. Above that and the swing area between 0.7699 to 0.7710 would be eyed.
SUMMARY: Buyers are making the play. Admittedly, there are a number of swing areas (see all the yellow) in play along with the MAs (including the 100 day MA) which has seen the price action move above and below over the 10 or so trading days. However, that is what happens when the price non-trends. At some point, the non-trend will trend. That is what the smart traders are preparing for. The technicals should give the clues.