Price moves back above the 200 hour MA
The EURUSD opened the day between the 100/200 hour MAs after holding support at the 100 hour MA on Friday on the run higher in yields after the US jobs report and wandering toward the middle of the 100/200 hour MA range into the close for the week.
Today after the pair moved up to retest the higher 200 hour MA (green line) in the Asian session, the price rotated lower and traded back below the 100 hour MA. The sellers tried to push back lower with the pair trading below the MA for 4 consecutive hourly bars, but it also traded above the MA line on each of those bars. So sellers were increasingly frustrated. The 100 hour MA stalled the rally on Wednesday and initially on Thursday, before breaking higher. It held at the MA line on Friday. The sellers had their shot. They failed.
The price is now up retesting – and breaking – the 200 hour MA. The price did peek (and peak) above the 200 hour MA on Friday, but there have been no closes above the MA level. Can the buyers not push higher and get the close above the MA line? They are making the next technical play.
More probing will look to test the highs from Friday at 1.1786 and then the 38.2% of the move down from the March 22 high. That comes in at 1.17963. Getting above the high, and then the 38.2% is what is needed to give the buyers more confidence. Short of that, and the move is just a modest correction in what has been (at least in the intermediate term) a downward trend.