Stay above 100 day MA is bullish
Technically, the price today has moved higher with the general lower dollar and risk on flows today. In the process, the AUDUSD based near its 100 and 200 hour moving averages, and moved to and through its 100 day moving average at 0.76309.
It is that 100 day moving average which will be the barometer for the shorter-term bias. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and we should retest the 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 0.7608. Move below them and the sellers will be more in control.
For now with the price above the hourly moving averages and the 100 day moving average, buyers are more in control.. The only thing getting in the way on the topside is the high from March 30 at 0.76632. The price has traded mostly below that level and above 0.7556 over the last 9 trading days. The 107 pips is not a whole lot over a near 2 week period. The high price today has so far reached 0.76598.
A move outside of the narrow range, would have traders targeting the 50% midpoint of the range since the March 18 high at 0.76901. Just above that is the swing low floor area between 0.7699 and 0.7710 (from March 15 to March 23 – see red numbered circles). That area should attract sellers on a test, with stops on a break above.
Looking at the daily chart, the neckline from a head and shoulders formation was broken on March 23. The price action took the pair down to test the February low initially at 0.75630 and then lower at the lows from last Thursday at 0.75315. However, buyers came in and pushed the price back toward the underside of the broken neckline today. That is about where the price high today stalled so far.
As a result, a move higher (and outside the 9 day range) and above the neckline would discredit the head and shoulders and should lead to more upside momentum.
On the downside getting below 0.7563 and then the low from last week at 0.75315 would open the door for a test of the 50% retracement of the move up from the November 2020 low at 0.74983 (see daily chart below).