OPEC+ decision imminent as members debate one or two-month rollover

OPEC+ decision imminent

Saudi Arabia reportedly asked the ministers again, who agrees with a one-month rollover and who agreed with a two-month rollover or a gradual increase. The majority supported a one-month rollover, so that looks like what we’ll get.

The thing is, Saudi Arabia holds a trump card in its extra one million barrel per day voluntary cut. It could threaten to remove that to get the deal across the line. Alternatively, the could work diplomacy in the month ahead and play the long game because I don’t think this is the hill they want to die on.

We could also get a pre-announcement of a small June increase. If it’s modest, like 500k bpd or less, it would be well-received by the market. Over 1 mbpd would be a problem.

WTI is dipping to $60.22, a quick 20-cent fall.

Update: A report says Saudi Arabia will be easing its voluntary cut of 1 mbpd in May. That’s led to further declines in crude, down to $59.90.

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