Turn of the month time. Are you aware of it?

It’s that time again

As we approach the end of the month it is worth point out an interesting phenomena. This is called the turn of the month effect and it can be seen in equity markets. The reasoning for this is due to monthly cash flows. As many payments are made around the turn of the month it is only a natural part of the normal ebb and flow of the markets that there should be some statistical advantage. However, it surprised me how strong that bias was. For the purposes of this observation the turn of the month was defined as being from the 26th to the 5th.

Here is a chart showing the cumulative return of the S&P500 around the turn of the month (blue line) vs the rest of the month (red line) from 1970 – 2018.

Us Brits are obviously a very regimented sort as we, in the words of Sherlock Holmes’s assistant Dr.Watson, like to keep our ‘habits regular’. Quite right Dr Watson. (we will just skip over the irregular opium driven tendencies of Mr Holmes for the sake of this point). FTSE 100 shows a very regular turn of the month tendency. 

Dax

However, the Germans take the prize for their turn of the month effect. Typical of Germans to get all the work done in the shortest time. Seems like Germans bring their work ethic to the DAX.

FTSE. seasonals

So, there we have it. The ‘Turn of the month’ effect courtesy of the great research undertaken by Seasonax. I am actually speaking on this today on a webinar explaining how to take advantage of seasonal trends in your trading . Message me if you would like details at giles.coghlan@hycm.com 

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