ANZ survey of New Zealand business, both headlines drop lower than the prelim reading and lower than the previous month.
Business Confidence -4.1
- preliminary 0, prior 7.0
Activity Outlook 16.6
- preliminary 17.4, prior 21.3
ANZ make the following key points
- All forward-looking activity indicators were lower in the second half of the month. The preliminary results would not have captured the full lockdown impact.
- The construction sector reported being much less busy, though they still had the strongest activity expectations across the economy.
- Inflation pressures remain strong
- The levels remain relatively robust but may have peaked for now.
- March snap lockdowns make Business Outlook data a little harder to interpret
- as the demand overshoot wanes and the tourists are missed more and more, the economy will go largely sideways this year
- quicker cooling we now expect in the housing market plays into this theme as well
- The vaccine rollout and the subsequent border reopening will be game-changers, though it won’t be click-of-a-switch stuff. But there’s a path to the new normal, whatever precisely that looks like, and we’re on it. We’ll be keeping an eye on construction for possible bumps in the road.