New Zealand ANZ business survey for March, final. Business confidence -4.1& Activity outlook 16.6

ANZ survey of New Zealand business, both headlines drop lower than the prelim reading and lower than the previous month.  

Business Confidence -4.1

  • preliminary 0, prior 7.0
Activity Outlook 16.6

  • preliminary 17.4, prior 21.3

ANZ make the following key points 

  • All forward-looking activity indicators were lower in the second half of the month. The preliminary results would not have captured the full lockdown impact. 
  • The construction sector reported being much less busy, though they still had the strongest activity expectations across the economy. 
  • Inflation pressures remain strong

And say:

  • The levels remain relatively robust but may have peaked for now.
  • March snap lockdowns make Business Outlook data a little harder to interpret
  • as the demand overshoot wanes and the tourists are missed more and more, the economy will go largely sideways this year
  • quicker cooling we now expect in the housing market plays into this theme as well
  • The vaccine rollout and the subsequent border reopening will be game-changers, though it won’t be click-of-a-switch stuff. But there’s a path to the new normal, whatever precisely that looks like, and we’re on it. We’ll be keeping an eye on construction for possible bumps in the road.

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