The third look at US Q4 GDP
- Second reading was +4.1%
- Personal consumption +2.3% vs +2.4% expected
- GDP price index 2.0% vs 2.1% expected
- Core PCE 1.3% vs 1.4% expected
Inventories added 1.37 percentage points to GDP.
Some of the change is trade-driven with exports up 22.3% compared to 21.8% in the second report. Home investment was also bumped to +36.6% compared to +35.8% previously.
The Q1 consensus is currently -0.1% but there is considerable disagreement about that and I expect it will be higher. For Q2, the consensus is at +11.7% and it’s 5.7% for the year.