Its not interest rates but selling intensifies
The NASDAQ index is not necessarily falling on a rise in interest rates today. The 10 year yield is up about 1.4 basis points which comes after a -7.4 basis point decline yesterday. THe 30 year is up 0.6 basis points after a shortfall yesterday. Yields are lower on Monday as well. Nevertheless, the markets are rotating sharply out of the NASDAQ stocks and into the cyclicals including the Dow 30.
A look at the market currently shows:
- S&P index +5.7 points or +0.15% at 3916.59
- NASDAQ index -137 points or -1.04% at 13090.34
- Dow +197 points or 0.60% at 32620
Looking at the hourly chart of the NASDAQ index, the price has moved back below its 100 hour moving average at 13195.45 (see blue line in the chart above). THe index is also moving back down toward swing lows going back to February 23 between 13003.98 and 13076 (which is near the 38.2% of the move down from the Feb high). The low just reached 13079.04. A move below that area would open up the downside for more selling in the index.
To reverse the bias now, getting back above the 100 hour moving average would be needed and so would a move back above the 50 hour moving average at 13342.56 and the 200 hour moving average at 13408.18. The price on Monday tried to extend above the 200 hour moving average (green line) but failed. That opened up the downside and kept the sellers in play.