Moving average was tested twice today. Bounced twice
The US 10 year yield is down -4.2 basis points on the day at 1.678%, but of the low at 1.6610%. At the low earlier today, the yield tested the 100 hour MA and bounced. After running to a high at 1.7000%, the yield has moved back to the downside.
The low just reached 1.6734%. The 100 hour MA is at 1.6726%.
With the market sensitive to yields, a move below the 100 hour MA would tilt the technical bias a little more to the downside. The 38.2% of the move up from the March 11 low yield is still down at 1.6457% and getting below that is a minimum target if the bias is to shift lower. So although yields are lower, there is more work to do to change the bias from moving higher (to moving back to the downside).
The Nasdaq index – after testing its 200 hour MA near the highs (at 13451 area – the high reached 13455) – has rotated lower (now at 13375).
If yields are negatively correlated to the tech stocks (tech stocks lower/yields higher) and the stocks have reached technical resistance, we could see a rotation higher in yields off the 100 hour MA in the 10-year. We will see, but the technical levels are defined.