GBPJPY chops toward day high. Still down for the 3rd day

Some bullish and bearish on the hourly chart

The GBPJPY established the 151.13 to 151.33 area as a key swing area.  At first it was home to swing highs back on March 9 and March 10. On March 11, the price moved above and then established support on March 12 and March 15.

Some bullish and bearish on the hourly chart

On March 16, the price moved below the level on the way to a test of an upward sloping trend line.  The price then move back higher and stayed above until Friday.

On Friday, the pair move back below, retested the area (see red numbered circle 13), and gapped lower today.  

Trading today bottomed between the 38.2-50% of the swing low from Feb 26 (start of last trend move higher)  That area came in at 150.578 to 149.97. The low reached 150.22.

The price is back above the 38.2% retracement level and looking to test the day highs. The pair is still lower on the day (closed at 150.937). The high just reached 150.874.  

There is some bullish and bearish from the chart.

 Bullish:  

  1. The overall trend is still higher with the bounce between 38.2% and 50%. 
  2. The price sideways back above the trend line 
  3. The price is back above the 38.2% retracement

Bearish:

  • Price still down on the day
  • The price is below the swing area above (red numbered circles).

I expect patient sellers to now lean against the swing area in the 151.13 to 151.33 area.  With all those swing lows and highs in that area, it should now find sellers.  

If the price starts to trade back below the 38.2%, we could also see the buyers give up.  The price gapped lower. The gap from the close has not been filled.  Not being to move higher, should have sellers feeling more comfortable.  

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